REBOUND: Resilience-Based Output Allocation for Nonlinear Drawdowns
Problem
Classical allocators minimize variance and treat drawdown depth and recovery time as constraints rather than first-class objectives.
Method
Models drawdown geometry and recovery stability directly. Allocates capital to maximize resilience rather than minimize variance. Evaluated on 31 years of multi-asset data with out-of-sample validation across independent splits.
Contributions
- Sharpe 1.54 and max drawdown 9.11% versus buy-and-hold 0.52 and 55.19%.
- Resilience-first objective that admits nonlinear drawdown penalties.
- Out-of-sample validation across independent splits.